Bunny and TLO in WCS Premier Final Day

June 28 2015
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After day one of the WCS finals, things looked awfully bleak for Liquid`SC2. First, Bunny, then TLO, then Ret all lost their opening matches by 0-2 scores. Oh and six on day one. Oof.

But it's not easy to count a Liquidian out. And on day two, the blues came back with a vengeance. First it was Bunny, who confronted the fearsome TvT expert MǂforGG, who had surprisingly dropped to the losers match. Unperturbed, Bunny stepped up to the plate and blew away his opposition, making the Korean terran look downright clueless in the match-up that has long been his birthright. Next, Bunny confronted PD.GunGFuBanDa in the match to advance. The German protoss gave a spirited account to himself, but Bunny proved too strong, winning 2-1 and completing his comeback. But the overall comeback was but halfway complete.

In Group C, TLO also considered the deep hole he dug for himself with the day one loss to ROOTiaguz. His first task was to defeat the Chinese zerg iG.iAsonu. This, he did in comfort, with a 2-0 win. Next, he had to reckon with his earlier tormenter, Iaguz. But the TLO who showed up to that match was very different from the one who bungled the encounter the day previous. In his rematch with the Australian terran, TLO was dominant, staying one step ahead the whole match and out-foxing his foe to secure another 2-0 and another Ro8.

With both Bunny and TLO making their second WCS quarterfinals, all eyes moved to Ret, who was positioned in the losers match against Kiwi zerg ROOTPetraeus. But the third chapter of a remarkable Liquid story went unfinished, as Ret took the first match with an impeccable timing, but lost the next two to Petraeus' innovative strategies. It was a disappointing end, but it shouldn't obscure a fantastic season from Ret, who surely established himself as a top European contender after a too-long absence.


2015 WCS Season Two Premier Final Day
dk [image loading] Liquid`Bunny, de [image loading] Liquid`TLO
June 28th, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

[image loading] [image loading] 2015 WCS Season Two Premier



With two Liquidians in the Ro8, it's another successful season for the blues at the forefront of global Starcraft. But while getting this far is a great accomplishment, it's not something that anyone was satisfied with. As TLO said in his stage interview about going deep in the tournament: "That's how human beings are, we get something and then we want more."

Amen, Dario.

The match-ups for the quarterfinals are not easy. In order to equal or beat his season one semi-finals achievement, Bunny must go through the deadly protoss StarDust. Meanwhile, to better his success last season, TLO must reprise his groupstage feat of beating the defending champion CMStorm.Polt. Both matches are doable, but far from easy. Day one showed our vulnerabilities. Day two showed our strengths. What will the final day bring?


dk [image loading] Liquid`Bunny < 15:00 GMT (+00:00) > kr [image loading] StarDust


For Bunny, this Ro8 match is arguably easier than the challenges posed by his encounters with the group of death. StarDust is a potent player, but not one who strikes the kind of fear into hearts that ROOTHydra or forGG's TvT do. Bunny has overcome tougher challenges before and is decently favored by the stats to do so again here. The problem for StarDust is his PvT, which is his weakest match-up. He recently lost an online series to coL.qxc, and in May he was defeated by SBENU.Jjakji and barely edged ROOTKelazhur. These sparse recent PvT results lay bare the reasons why Bunny should like this match-up.

In contrast, Bunny has been dominant in recent TvPs. Just last week, he played a number of high level games in the match-up against top European players. It's certainly worrying that he lost 0-4 to MǂLilbow (a likely Ro4 opponent, should he make it there), but his wins against our very own MaNa, NB.PtitDrogo, and GunGFuBanDa show that he is not lost in the match-up. All that, and Bunny's 8-6 lifetime record vs his opponent, give our Danish player slightly better odds on paper.

If Bunny could've picked any of the possible match-ups, this is likely the one he would've chosen. Now, can he take advantage?

       (2039) Bunny  0-0  StarDust (1843)    
---------------------------------------------
20.16% 3-0 0-3 7.08%
25.02% 3-1 1-3 12.45%
20.70% 3-2 2-3 14.60%
---------------------------------------------
65.87% 34.13%

Median outcome: Bunny 3-2 StarDust

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

In the bottom match of the bracket, it's an intriguing Ro32 rematch between TLO and Polt...


de [image loading] Liquid`TLO < 16:30 GMT (+00:00) > kr [image loading] CMStorm.Polt


When TLO defeated Polt in the Ro32, it was certainly a surprise, but we know that TLO is good enough to give some top terrans a defeat. He's famously done it to just about everyone, including Bomber and MarineKing. It's one thing to take out a defending champion once, however it's another to best them a second time, in more games, and with the memories of the last confrontation still relatively fresh. If Polt comes unprepared and unworried about what TLO can bring this second time, then shame on him. It's more likely that he will not underestimate his opponent, and TLO will lose the advantage of surprise.

But while TLO can almost certainly count on a wary and well-studied opponent, Polt can count on a TLO who is always playing the game one step ahead. After his loss to Iaguz, TLO's mindset was his best weapon in coming back the next day and striking back. That wasn't always the case, but as everyone knows right now, there is hardly a more cerebral and unassailable player in the game. When things don't work for TLO, he doesn't melt down, he recovers. On the basis of his 4-0 run on day two, TLO is back in the groove and that's not a good sign for Polt, who didn't play at all on the second day. One player in this match-up is hot, the other is cold. TLO is not the player you want to go up against in a match that is as mental as physical. The stats put him at a disadvantage. But recent history is on TLO's side.

     (1664) TLO  0-0  Polt (2074)    
-------------------------------------
3.48% 3-0 0-3 30.54%
7.04% 3-1 1-3 29.92%
9.48% 3-2 2-3 19.54%
-------------------------------------
20.00% 80.00%

Median outcome: TLO 1-3 Polt

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

A field of 63 has been whittled down to just eight. Two Liquidians are among them. Can they make good on the promise of WCS Season 2? Can they improve their standings from last season? We'll find out as day three—the final day, kicks off Sunday in Toronto.




Writer: tree.hugger
Graphics & Format: shiroiusagi
Photo Credits: Arvid Wuensch