Liquid in the WCS Premier Ro16

After a long (too long, seriously) break, it's back. WCS. Just in time too, it's been almost a month.

Starcraft 2 is a long time away from the daily marathon of a game in its ascendancy, but it can still provide plenty of fireworks when concentrated over the course of a weekend. Get your snacks ready, because we're headed for just such a stretch. Sixteen of the world's best are gathered in Toronto to battle it out. At the end, we'll see one player take home the top prize from WCS Season 2. With three Liquidians in the mix, the blues will once again be out in force. But the odds are more difficult this time around. Each player seems to have a group calibrated to destroy them. As a result, each of the first day match-ups have the Liquid player as the underdog.

Still, fight on, we must. To paraphrase an old sport cliché, 'there's a reason why we play the games'.

For Bunny, TLO, and Ret, this is the moment to make a statement. Underdogs only exist on paper. The games sort out the real winners and losers.





The matches start on Friday at 17:00 GMT (+00:00). Perfect for Europeans coming off work and Americans bored at work. The opening group is by far the toughest, and unfortunately Bunny is one of the reasons why. He's joined by ROOTHydra, MǂforGG, and the unfortunate PD.GunGFuBanDa. The second group is irrelevant for our purposes, but it does feature the defending champion, CMStorm.Polt. In the third—and probably the easiest—group, TLO is positioned. He will battle against the Australian terran ROOTiaguz, the Chinese zerg iG.iAsonu, and the formidable French protoss MǂLilbow. In the final group, Ret will aim to continue his redemption in WCS. He will face a tall order with StarDust, mYi.Petraeus, and EGJaedong.

According to the posted schedule, the groups will go in order, with the first three matches of each group being played on day one. Lets dive in with the opening group:




With the presence of two top Koreans, (including one so skilled in TvT), this should be a tough ask for Bunny. Aligulac gives him a 36% chance at passing the first match, and that's close to his overall 35% chance of advancing. Simply put, Bunny will need to play out of his skin to advance. There is no way through this group on the strength of certain match-ups, in fact, they mostly go against him. This is a group of players with plenty of experience and success against terran. Bunny must bring his A-game to Group A, or he will be looking at early elimination.

That said, Bunny achieved the Ro4 in WCS Premier Season 1 for a reason. He is one of the world's best foreigners, and if there's a silver lining to such a brutal group, it's that Bunny has here an opportunity to build his reputation as The Foreign Hope™. Advance from this group and at least one threatening Korean will be eliminated. That's something to hang your hat on, if you can achieve it.

With essentially a month and a half since he last competed in WCS, Bunny has had ample time to prepare and bolster his game. We know he has the ability to pull the upset here, we'll soon see if he has a chance to make good.


Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

In Group C, we check in with our German friend...



Make no mistake, Group C is the weakest of the Ro16. That's a luxury that TLO earned through his tremendous Ro32 performance. In case you forgot, TLO defeated Polt 2-1, then the Polish zerg TES.Elazer 2-0. Knocking down the defending champ is not something to sneeze at, and if TLO can muster that same form in this group, it'll be a breeze.

Still, the ratings rank our German zerg an underdog, even in the opening match against the Aussie terran Iaguz. Fair? Perhaps not, but with TLO, you're never quite sure whether or not he will be able to tap into his latent genius on any given weekend. This group is a group with just enough unknowns so that it feels suspiciously like a trap. Iaguz is no slouch, but he's hard to prepare for. Ditto for iAsonu, who was the beneficiary of a ludicrously easy Ro32 group, but is a mystery beyond that. The one sure thing is that Lilbow will bring the heat. The French protoss delivered a touch on his immense potential in the Ro32 by dominating Kelazhur and Hydra. He did not have to face Snute in that group, but TLO might get a chance to test his mettle this weekend. Lilbow has long been considered one of Europe's best by his fellow players, but has yet to really demonstrate his skill in a big setting. This is his best chance yet, and TLO stands in his way.

Given the common sense odds, TLO must be the second favorite in this group following the Frenchman. But with so many wildcards, this group will be worth watching all the way through.


Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Rounding out the groups, it's Group D, with Ret...



The final group in the Ro16 is hard to pin down. With two experience, title-winning Koreans, it's possible to consider it the second toughest. Yet StarDust and EGJaedong have also not been particularly active or successful recently. Is this a group of faded glory? Of old hands trying to regain their footing?

The player who resists this simplistic analysis, is the Kiwi zerg Petraeus, who is not an old name. But for StarDust, Jaedong, and Ret, there's an element of one of the later Rocky movies here. This is about making a comeback for all three. At least one will take one giant step closer towards returning to the heights of acclaim they once occupied.

Why not Ret? We've asked that question before, and been rewarded with an affirmative. Remember that Ret was disfavored in his opening group and passed it, besting the Chinese protoss BH.Mystery and EnVy.viOlet. He's similarly pooh-poohed here, but damn the stats, full speed ahead. When our Dutch zerg is on his game, he can take on anyone. What do Jaedong and StarDust offer that he does not? In one analysis, it's the rising star Petraeus who offers the stiffest challenge, not the faded stars of yesteryear.

All players in this group looked vulnerable in some respect in the Ro32. But only Ret and Jaedong were able to best their groups. All bets are off in this group.


Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

The kickoff matches for 2015 WCS Premier Season 2 offer plenty of intrigue for one day. While only a few fates will be sealed on the opening day, a tone will certainly be set. For Liquid`SC2, the goal is nothing short of a repeat of season one, in which three Liquidians made the Ro8. It will certainly be difficult. But everyone at this stage is here because they belong. Don't count anyone out.

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