WCS Premier: TLO

Sometimes things just go according to plan. That was the case yesterday, when despite our trepidation Snute made short work of WCS Premier Group A, trouncing AT.uThermal and iG.XiGua 2-0 to advance from his group. In Challenger and Premier, Snute is undefeated and looking strong.

Now in the second group of the Ro32, TLO will take the stage in Burbank, looking to make it 2/2. While Snute's group was potentially tricky, TLO's is explicitly hard. With two of the top players from last year's old WCS America in the mix, our German hero will need to show that Europe is best. While it might be too much to expect the same domination round after round, we have plenty of faith that TLO can succeed in doing the only thing that matters: making it to the next round.

Here's the preview—





TLO's first task will probably be his simplest. Kelazhur is the strongest player in Brazil and a bright young prospect. But his geographic isolation makes it difficult for him to engage fully with the global scene, and for that reason, he faces a severe disadvantage. He doesn't have the same opportunities to play regularly against the best in a tournament setting, and can only practice against top players with serious lag. His 3-0 win in Challenger over ROOT.CatZ is a point in his favor, but unfortunately all three other players in this group will present a much more difficult challenge. TLO will be the first to get a crack at Kelazhur, and he should be able to overcome him.

In the second match, iG.Jim will clash with CMStorm.Polt. The Chinese protoss made big waves in 2013 and 2014's iterations of WCS, often showing his level to be just below that of the Korean participants. He is likely China's most formidable player, especially given his fairly complete victory in the recent [SOC Online Finals](http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/SOC_2013-2014/Grand_Finals). The key questions will be one relating to his recent form. What does being the best in China mean in relation to the other regions? We'll find out more on that front through Jim's performance. But TLO's path to the next round may go through him.

Polt needs little introduction. The Korean star turned Captain America is entering yet another season of WCS as a North American representative, but this time most of his major Korean rivals have been cleared out. For Polt, he's probably thinking of this as free money. And it may well be, he is the undoubted favorite. Worse, he is anathema for TLO, having won eight of their ten games against each other. There's little indication of a let-up. His recent form has been fairly strong, only falling to high quality Korean players and usually besting his foreigner challengers.

Here's how the group breaks down percentage-wise:


Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Aaand the detailed match predictions:

Liquid`TLO < 2-1 > TA.Kelazhur
iG.Jim < 1-2 > CMStorm.Polt
Liquid`TLO < 1-2 > CMStorm.Polt
iG.Jim < 2-1 > TA.Kelazhur
Liquid`TLO < 2-1 > iG.Jim

The data largely reinforces the intuitive expectations. Kelazhur, despite having a great sounding ID, is the big underdog. Meanwhile Polt is the heavy favorite. What remains is a battle between TLO and Jim, with the winner advancing. It's close, but TLO holds a slight advantage on paper. But with all players outside of the big three regions, you never quite know what you're going to get. Jim has scored some huge wins in the past, and he may be up for it again.

Maybe we're being too gloomy. TLO is no stranger to upsetting the established order either, and Snute's crushing performance has made it clear that Liquid players are not to be trifled with. Lets see if TLO can reinforce that notion in style on WCS Premier's second day.

TLO fighting!

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